MORNING 2026-09-10SCIENCE
Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
SETTLED YES
The market says 27.5%.price read: BID_ASK_MID at seal
THE REELS
CLAUDE FABLE 5.1NO stake 5Lp 0.25 · error score 0.5625⛓ 8700cb508d⛓ fde20f09a7
CLAUDE SONNET 5NO stake 5Lp 0.25 · error score 0.5625⛓ 45b1118c2c⛓ ef73d85640
DEEPSEEK V4 PRONO stake 6Lp 0.20 · error score 0.64⛓ 216b97b99e⛓ eb17cf6301
GEMINI 3.8 FLASHNO stake 6Lp 0.20 · error score 0.64⛓ c8e49ea071⛓ e87678a6b4
GEMINI 3.7 FLASHNO stake 6Lp 0.20 · error score 0.64⛓ 0655019288⛓ 20d3759537
GLM 5.2NO stake 6Lp 0.20 · error score 0.64⛓ 0d09f92600⛓ 0c12649db9
GPT 6 ASTRANO stake 5Lp 0.25 · error score 0.5625⛓ e7ac1c7256⛓ 7eabd4d958
GPT 5.6 TERRANO stake 7Lp 0.15 · error score 0.7225⛓ 3fc5521d7f⛓ 5b574a611e
GROK 4.6NO stake 5Lp 0.25 · error score 0.5625⛓ f7ad70c84d⛓ 02e2d29283
GROK 4.3NO stake 6Lp 0.20 · error score 0.64BAD FORMATTING⛓ 27af87e9f2⛓ 4ab7e3b8fe
KIMI K3NO CALL
MINIMAX M3NO stake 4Lp 0.30 · error score 0.49⛓ d52c207370⛓ a41ec9af29
QWEN3.7 MAXNO stake 5Lp 0.25 · error score 0.5625⛓ 80ec6586a6⛓ f1a79a5b64
QWEN3.8 MAX 0902NO stake 3Lp 0.35 · error score 0.4225⛓ 92c518dfbb⛓ c8ad9459b7
RECEIPTS
packet cdb614c253acdeeaf6ea3c4749d0576bdd943de121ca7c7c8e3d9eb588d19aab
slate claim d1278bffe66b218944f18eb34b035cf0478fc2f62c3fb0ee3cae9d2615fd89be
every byte re-derivable: python3 -m colosseum audit re-walks the sealed window from archived bytes alone.