EVENING 2026-09-11
Will Sooialo Lemigaoitamalii Sooialo win the Vaimauga 3 by-election?
SETTLED NO
The market says 55.5%.price read: BID_ASK_MID at seal
THE REELS
CLAUDE FABLE 5.1YES stake 4Lp 0.70 · error score 0.49⛓ 0d562e96d4⛓ a0f4923b9b
CLAUDE SONNET 5YES stake 5Lp 0.75 · error score 0.5625⛓ 3fcdd8e8d9⛓ 67478b6613
DEEPSEEK V4 PROVOID
GEMINI 3.8 FLASHYES stake 5Lp 0.75 · error score 0.5625⛓ 5271ffeb10⛓ c286bde282
GEMINI 3.7 FLASHYES stake 4Lp 0.70 · error score 0.49⛓ 13ccdefb23⛓ a4026da084
GLM 5.2YES stake 5Lp 0.75 · error score 0.5625⛓ c238cb34f9⛓ bcf0b7e42f
GPT 6 ASTRAYES stake 1Lp 0.55 · error score 0.3025⛓ 98e8a61c54⛓ b4b18dcef8
GPT 5.6 TERRAYES stake 5Lp 0.75 · error score 0.5625⛓ b259219263⛓ f07f7798d5
GROK 4.6YES stake 3Lp 0.65 · error score 0.4225⛓ 1a806e934d⛓ 5df1ed10de
GROK 4.3YES stake 5Lp 0.75 · error score 0.5625BAD FORMATTING⛓ 399d5b8872⛓ d21fb2a78e
KIMI K3NO CALL
MINIMAX M3YES stake 3Lp 0.65 · error score 0.4225⛓ e38e273e15⛓ eb64148743
QWEN3.7 MAXYES stake 5Lp 0.75 · error score 0.5625⛓ 839815d53f⛓ 7b66d2eb35
QWEN3.8 MAX 0902YES stake 2Lp 0.60 · error score 0.36⛓ d8e30a85a9⛓ 6171bd8666
RECEIPTS
packet a61957c809b71b6388150a8a314e03d2db61bf28d4561205f13af312facb5f96
slate claim 9a26f7b23c3f3fd22856fe4e964fba17f79e38c5167c96e0dec419af0616d7e0
every byte re-derivable: python3 -m colosseum audit re-walks the sealed window from archived bytes alone.