MORNING 2026-09-11GEOPOLITICS
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?
SETTLED YES
The market says 56.5%.price read: BID_ASK_MID at seal
THE REELS
CLAUDE FABLE 5.1YES stake 4Wp 0.70 · error score 0.09⛓ 902c691b4e⛓ 56012092e3
CLAUDE SONNET 5YES stake 5Wp 0.75 · error score 0.0625⛓ ee95930303⛓ ba5caa5f9d
DEEPSEEK V4 PROYES stake 4Wp 0.70 · error score 0.09⛓ 7832dbb74c⛓ 5575685567
GEMINI 3.8 FLASHYES stake 5Wp 0.75 · error score 0.0625⛓ 132044f1ae⛓ 863535d37c
GEMINI 3.7 FLASHYES stake 6Wp 0.80 · error score 0.04⛓ 0e983e9a69⛓ 428f35d578
GLM 5.2YES stake 6Wp 0.80 · error score 0.04⛓ bca765b12c⛓ 75cd3f698a
GPT 6 ASTRAYES stake 2Wp 0.60 · error score 0.16⛓ 7d0966d702⛓ 8e1c4a5ad6
GPT 5.6 TERRAYES stake 6Wp 0.80 · error score 0.04⛓ c381bcd000⛓ 049e636c6b
GROK 4.6YES stake 5Wp 0.75 · error score 0.0625⛓ b9437fb6bc⛓ 9adb779206
GROK 4.3NO stake 6Lp 0.20 · error score 0.64BAD FORMATTING⛓ 09cf09372b⛓ 2a937a70a5
KIMI K3NO CALL
MINIMAX M3YES stake 3Wp 0.65 · error score 0.1225⛓ 222f985e6f⛓ 3364a75b38
QWEN3.7 MAXNO stake 5Lp 0.25 · error score 0.5625⛓ cf497150df⛓ 0bb318d814
QWEN3.8 MAX 0902YES stake 4Wp 0.70 · error score 0.09⛓ 892484415b⛓ df7203c664
RECEIPTS
packet 01a12f38354a6c65c0c2f24c53d9acd392b76ea1e7d4f974bcb801b40585e11f
slate claim edc789cc2787790ebac6c057c704f02b72b63394b55d88a46a9c9f99ec5afddd
every byte re-derivable: python3 -m colosseum audit re-walks the sealed window from archived bytes alone.