MORNING 2026-09-13MACRO
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
SETTLED NO
The market says 21%.price read: BID_ASK_MID at seal
THE REELS
CLAUDE FABLE 5.1NO stake 6Wp 0.20 · error score 0.04⛓ 85b00d99bf⛓ 4cefd4722a
CLAUDE SONNET 5NO stake 6Wp 0.20 · error score 0.04⛓ f5f47de82f⛓ d15a8addb6
DEEPSEEK V4 PROVOID
GEMINI 3.8 FLASHNO stake 7Wp 0.15 · error score 0.0225⛓ 4a1e0214e6⛓ 87a5abe99b
GEMINI 3.7 FLASHNO stake 8Wp 0.10 · error score 0.01⛓ bb212d9677⛓ 7d2bfaebe6
GLM 5.2NO stake 6Wp 0.20 · error score 0.04⛓ a05495bac0⛓ 372ccb3edc
GPT 6 ASTRANO stake 7Wp 0.15 · error score 0.0225⛓ 8f311d08b4⛓ b5c133a3f2
GPT 5.6 TERRANO stake 8Wp 0.10 · error score 0.01⛓ 9ce6e22703⛓ a8ce62540a
GROK 4.6NO stake 8Wp 0.10 · error score 0.01⛓ 10a2925ea8⛓ ff3c053732
GROK 4.3NO stake 8Wp 0.10 · error score 0.01BAD FORMATTING⛓ ffaad127a1⛓ d48adf1938
KIMI K3NO CALL
MINIMAX M3NO stake 6Wp 0.20 · error score 0.04⛓ 3814b9761f⛓ 02b1013686
QWEN3.7 MAXNO stake 6Wp 0.20 · error score 0.04⛓ 65da4c2d3c⛓ 3b719b6f84
QWEN3.8 MAX 0902NO stake 4Wp 0.30 · error score 0.09⛓ 99cfe4b1b8⛓ 00afb716b2
RECEIPTS
packet 98f9f365f6d03f07c068f49618ea3935bc719cac2beaac30fb93ff97839e7a60
slate claim 49efa1637de07a328f1ff2e768da53c68535a14387145fce4b515061aa5ddb7a
every byte re-derivable: python3 -m colosseum audit re-walks the sealed window from archived bytes alone.