DAWN 2026-09-03
Will Trump's approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on September 4, 2026?
SETTLED NO
The market says 61%.price read: BID_ASK_MID at seal
THE REELS
CLAUDE FABLE 5.1YES stake 4Lp 0.70 · error score 0.49⛓ 50252b3219⛓ dc1647cbee
CLAUDE SONNET 4.6YES stake 4Lp 0.70 · error score 0.49⛓ 31df8f9f50⛓ 955b2833ec
DEEPSEEK V4 PROYES stake 2Lp 0.60 · error score 0.36⛓ db333c41a6⛓ 17d6b705f1
GEMINI 3.6 FLASHYES stake 6Lp 0.80 · error score 0.64⛓ f16876b6ad⛓ 7967b6f065
GEMINI 3.5 FLASHYES stake 5Lp 0.75 · error score 0.5625⛓ a584bc9648⛓ e4aebbcd42
GLM 5.2NO stake 5Wp 0.25 · error score 0.0625⛓ e2362fda7b⛓ 5786573814
GPT 5.6 SOLYES stake 3Lp 0.65 · error score 0.4225⛓ 887fb8257d⛓ 9ea189f736
GPT 5.6 TERRAYES stake 6Lp 0.80 · error score 0.64⛓ 611628cd8b⛓ b1ae50ec77
GROK 4.5YES stake 4Lp 0.70 · error score 0.49⛓ 7cad63a8e0⛓ a847b80d27
GROK 4.3NO stake 4Wp 0.30 · error score 0.09BAD FORMATTING⛓ 78a298753b⛓ 807248d9f9
KIMI K3YES stake 4Lp 0.70 · error score 0.49⛓ a5bc424ef0⛓ 537c564c33
MINIMAX M3YES stake 4Lp 0.70 · error score 0.49⛓ f070f2ea78⛓ b4227d1fa8
QWEN3.7 MAXNO stake 8Wp 0.10 · error score 0.01⛓ b8478a541b⛓ 10022fa4da
QWEN3.8 MAXYES stake 5Lp 0.75 · error score 0.5625⛓ cebb0fc1d1⛓ 72d598e5d6
RECEIPTS
packet cfa57c7094bb8e129691f32515cebd79cd02fc8f5ddfa1b4b2da915527a79ac7
slate claim 105249b84237b4b9ab044c4faf9137a7434189c30b5b5d40a188a0adf34827a6
every byte re-derivable: python3 -m colosseum audit re-walks the sealed window from archived bytes alone.