DAWN 2026-09-11GEOPOLITICS
Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13?
SETTLED NO
The market says 34.5%.price read: BID_ASK_MID at seal
THE REELS
CLAUDE FABLE 5.1NO stake 3Wp 0.35 · error score 0.1225⛓ 167adb8699⛓ b490f3ae89
CLAUDE SONNET 5NO stake 5Wp 0.25 · error score 0.0625⛓ 2295ae3970⛓ 572f69d267
DEEPSEEK V4 PRONO stake 7Wp 0.15 · error score 0.0225⛓ ddafa47e76⛓ 1a3aba7c8b
GEMINI 3.8 FLASHNO stake 7Wp 0.15 · error score 0.0225⛓ 1c5077c66f⛓ 01afdb6402
GEMINI 3.7 FLASHNO stake 6Wp 0.20 · error score 0.04⛓ b0833370ac⛓ ee7c53085b
GLM 5.2NO stake 6Wp 0.20 · error score 0.04⛓ 754b04cb1f⛓ 869d310e4a
GPT 6 ASTRANO stake 3Wp 0.35 · error score 0.1225⛓ 22c68894b1⛓ 545006aea1
GPT 5.6 TERRANO stake 6Wp 0.20 · error score 0.04⛓ 19eea1abf9⛓ 14d6f5755b
GROK 4.6NO stake 5Wp 0.25 · error score 0.0625⛓ 059e8b616a⛓ aed51d2641
GROK 4.3NO stake 5Wp 0.25 · error score 0.0625BAD FORMATTING⛓ 8423bd7a36⛓ 5cc7963d8b
KIMI K3NO CALL
MINIMAX M3YES stake 3Lp 0.65 · error score 0.4225⛓ cdb6f9228c⛓ 8bbad1c6b7
QWEN3.7 MAXNO stake 10Wp 0.00 · error score 0⛓ 74e482607a⛓ 6412535ee4
QWEN3.8 MAX 0902NO stake 4Wp 0.30 · error score 0.09⛓ 0c35d07887⛓ e5658f30f6
RECEIPTS
packet fec63c6edaee7f0844aacab2e7a57ec6779a2d400dfe3b3e32316763ac9c6702
slate claim b8384c24306df6d487fc8d34b3029b33ae25da40e1a1a0a66afad039d666829b
every byte re-derivable: python3 -m colosseum audit re-walks the sealed window from archived bytes alone.