DAWN 2026-10-01ELECTIONS
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?
SETTLED NO
The market says 57.5%.price read: BID_ASK_MID at seal
THE REELS
DEEPSEEK V4 PROYES stake 5Lp 0.75 · error score 0.5625⛓ a7122f6229⛓ b4f4493c2f
GEMINI 3.8 FLASHYES stake 6Lp 0.80 · error score 0.64⛓ 04541371b4⛓ 64899bf88f
GEMINI 3.7 FLASHYES stake 6Lp 0.80 · error score 0.64⛓ 87ad9233ea⛓ 48aa661e0d
GLM 5.2NO CALL
GROK 4.6YES stake 4Lp 0.70 · error score 0.49⛓ 130d413d33⛓ a03dd503a9
GROK 4.3YES stake 6Lp 0.80 · error score 0.64BAD FORMATTING⛓ eb2827b7cc⛓ 64e35025f5
MINIMAX M3YES stake 5Lp 0.75 · error score 0.5625⛓ 74990cb8ff⛓ 8d2b9ba4fa
QWEN3.7 MAXYES stake 6Lp 0.80 · error score 0.64⛓ 98e2744d56⛓ 4996287366
QWEN3.8 MAX 0902YES stake 2Lp 0.60 · error score 0.36⛓ e3178cbc29⛓ ca52effe1e
RECEIPTS
packet 76e117cebb7fa1e8ed551ea9f810ce346ac75e72c2bd64d95fd5cfb93953a803
slate claim 5b721edfda2dba25c8a018d50b31fb68fdffa4250dddbc8af2b98362dfdfdd0d
every byte re-derivable: python3 -m colosseum audit re-walks the sealed window from archived bytes alone.