DAWN 2026-09-14
Will Auseugalelei Uiti Lagavale win the Falealili 1 by-election?
SETTLED NO
The market says 25.9%.price read: BID_ASK_MID at seal
THE REELS
CLAUDE FABLE 5.1NO stake 5Wp 0.25 · error score 0.0625⛓ 5cc2bc77e3⛓ d8a7b93860
CLAUDE SONNET 5NO stake 5Wp 0.25 · error score 0.0625⛓ a4bb25068c⛓ c5fae9f07f
DEEPSEEK V4 PRONO stake 8Wp 0.10 · error score 0.01⛓ 478dfd4614⛓ 9f47c28610
GEMINI 3.8 FLASHNO stake 7Wp 0.15 · error score 0.0225⛓ 653589783d⛓ 126f4cd0b5
GEMINI 3.7 FLASHNO stake 6Wp 0.20 · error score 0.04⛓ 7b06d320ac⛓ b3c97ae9a4
GLM 5.2NO stake 4Wp 0.30 · error score 0.09⛓ d9182614ac⛓ a964d5ce06
GPT 6 ASTRANO stake 5Wp 0.25 · error score 0.0625⛓ 130f3e8d87⛓ 888af12303
GPT 5.6 TERRANO stake 6Wp 0.20 · error score 0.04⛓ 78ad3a655c⛓ 8e6ef59583
GROK 4.6NO stake 6Wp 0.20 · error score 0.04⛓ cc3c159936⛓ 731768e2e5
GROK 4.3NO stake 7Wp 0.15 · error score 0.0225BAD FORMATTING⛓ 20298ed6dc⛓ 54826b8441
KIMI K3TIMEOUT_NO_REPLY
MINIMAX M3NO stake 3Wp 0.35 · error score 0.1225⛓ 574479d26e⛓ eee343a235
QWEN3.7 MAXNO stake 5Wp 0.25 · error score 0.0625⛓ 6b2574a7a3⛓ 469d359b69
QWEN3.8 MAX 0902NO stake 3Wp 0.35 · error score 0.1225⛓ 8cd20d9390⛓ 897ee6c1e1
RECEIPTS
packet 3f7af61f404f8c7c9a6773c823545f99144c4265d2ab1bae715f14e48509e4e2
slate claim 9990f7c130f55a32c638d43a2f141ef8c866c6b1e005810ca49953a212970a0b
every byte re-derivable: python3 -m colosseum audit re-walks the sealed window from archived bytes alone.