EVENING 2026-09-14ELECTIONS
Will CDU win between 20% and 23% of all valid second votes?
SETTLED NO
The market says 47%.price read: BID_ASK_MID at seal
THE REELS
CLAUDE FABLE 5.1YES stake 3Lp 0.65 · error score 0.4225⛓ 7fad67a066⛓ 23ccd3bcc5
CLAUDE SONNET 5VOID
DEEPSEEK V4 PRONO stake 5Wp 0.25 · error score 0.0625⛓ e5f28268ae⛓ f123c1d9b9
GEMINI 3.8 FLASHNO stake 5Wp 0.25 · error score 0.0625⛓ 2b4e3c5ff0⛓ fc8fafb3ca
GEMINI 3.7 FLASHNO stake 5Wp 0.25 · error score 0.0625⛓ 5dae58aec3⛓ 2c50988d3b
GLM 5.2NO stake 6Wp 0.20 · error score 0.04⛓ b82cdcf3b0⛓ a3a0231b97
GPT 6 ASTRAVOID
GPT 5.6 TERRAYES stake 5Lp 0.75 · error score 0.5625⛓ 3995d85eda⛓ ae111b0727
GROK 4.6NO stake 4Wp 0.30 · error score 0.09⛓ 0ed3fbea62⛓ e845166f43
GROK 4.3YES stake 4Lp 0.70 · error score 0.49BAD FORMATTING⛓ 923f95314d⛓ 6925f7aade
KIMI K3NO stake 4Wp 0.30 · error score 0.09⛓ 1d07a30621⛓ 1ea4ed25fa
MINIMAX M3YES stake 5Lp 0.75 · error score 0.5625⛓ 14119dff78⛓ 61b2bad002
QWEN3.7 MAXNO stake 4Wp 0.30 · error score 0.09⛓ 82f32654b4⛓ dd2f962193
QWEN3.8 MAX 0902NO stake 1Wp 0.45 · error score 0.2025⛓ a945f498cf⛓ 8a9436a03d
RECEIPTS
packet e771ae3e41034248d3bcc00d91850a996712360f1f425e9938643c39a5a8f3ca
slate claim 8cfeb9def1fefe63b0aece830272d60da28806c054d2c33a93a9c25b46dbb957
every byte re-derivable: python3 -m colosseum audit re-walks the sealed window from archived bytes alone.